Saturday, May 27, 2023

I Disagree – Meb Faber Analysis


What funding perception do you maintain that the overwhelming majority of your friends (75%+) don’t share?

In 2019, I made a decision to start out publicly answering the query above and including to it over time. You’ll be able to try the complete thread right here, however my current podcast with Michael Batnick and Ben Carlson touched on the identical matter so at their ‘nudging,’ I’m sharing the complete listing beneath too.

Apologies for offending anybody upfront!

David Allsopp on Twitter: "Reminder that the "triggered feminist" meme, much loved by internet arseholes everywhere, comes from a video where the lady is actually making pretty calm, rational arguments in a


1. Investing based mostly on dividend yield alone is a tax-inefficient and nonsensical funding technique.

See our outdated guide, Shareholder Yield: A Higher Strategy to Dividend Investing, for more information, free obtain right here.

2. The Federal Reserve has executed a superb job.

I publicly say on a regular basis that they need to simply peg the Fed Fund Charge to the 2-year, and my buddy Tom McClellan has a superb chart illustrating this view…


3. Development following methods deserve a significant allocation to most portfolios.

We’ve got in all probability the best development allocation of any RIA that I do know with our Trinity fashions, the default allocation is half!

4. A primary low value international market portfolio of ETFs will outperform the overwhelming majority of establishments over time.

See our outdated GAA guide for more information, free obtain right here.

5. US buyers needs to be allocating a minimal of fifty% of their inventory allocation to non-US nations.

Take a look at our submit “The Case for International Investing” for more information.

6. 13F replication is a greater method to investing in most long-term hedge funds than investing within the hedge funds themselves.

Make investments with the Home free guide obtain right here.

7. So long as you will have a few of the major substances (international shares, bonds, actual belongings) your asset allocation doesn’t actually matter. What does matter is charges and taxes.

See our outdated GAA guide for more information, free obtain right here. Plus, right here’s an outdated Twitter thread on the subject.

8. A easy quant display screen on public shares will outperform most non-public fairness funds.

Be taught extra about this by listening to my previous podcast episodes with Dan Rasmussen & Jeff Hooke.

9. An affordable time-frame to guage a supervisor or technique is 10, possibly 20 years.

We wrote a paper on this matter, you may learn it right here.

10. I don’t really feel like I’ve to have an opinion on Telsa inventory.

Though I’ve shared my opinion with Elon on different subjects earlier than (learn right here)

11. A passive index just isn’t the identical factor as a market cap index (anymore).


12. Monetary advisors and asset managers are 4x leveraged the inventory market, and will/ought to hedge that publicity….and even personal no US shares!

Learn our longer submit on the subject right here.

13. Most endowments and pensions could be higher off firing their workers and transferring to a scientific portfolio of ETFs.

You needed to know I wrote a weblog submit about this, proper? CalPERS lastly instructed me they gained’t rent me to do that. I attempted…


14. Everybody likes to complain about manipulation, THE FED, r/wsb, yadda yadda… Markets are functioning as they all the time have. Which is, usually. Brief squeeze? Yawn, been happening eternally. 

Jamie Catherwood had an amazing submit on the historical past of brief squeezes. 

15. Excessive inventory market valuations are usually not justified by low rates of interest.

Learn my submit about this from January 2021 right here

16. A world diversified portfolio of belongings is *much less dangerous* than placing your secure cash in brief time period bonds or payments.

This is among the subjects lined in The Keep Wealthy Portfolio submit


17. The CAPE Ratio is a helpful indicator and issue.

Right here’s my FAQ with every little thing you have to know in regards to the CAPE Ratio. 

18. It doesn’t have an effect on your funding final result when you personal US shares. You possibly can personal 0% and just do superb.

Right here’s my tweet about this with the chart beneath. 


19. A portfolio of sovereign bonds weighted by yield is superior to at least one weighted by market cap and complete debt issuance.

Learn our white paper on this right here


20. Placing your whole cash into one asset, just like the S&P500, just isn’t “boring”.

… to be continued …

Am I overestimating how a lot I disagree with others? What are beliefs you disagree together with your friends on? Be happy to answer to the unique thread right here


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